Working Papers

Guardrail or Guide? Generative AI, Criminal Capital, and the Re-framing of Downstream Search for Illicit Drugs

We examine whether access to ChatGPT changes how high-risk drug-related information searches are subsequently expressed on downstream conventional search engines, extending criminal capital theory to conversational AI.

Aug 24, 2026

Not so De Minimis: Tariffs and Cross-Border Trade on Online Marketplaces

We study how the 2025 suspension of the U.S. de minimis exemption affected cross-border trade on Etsy, finding an 18% decline in non-U.S. seller sales and a net contraction in marketplace activity.

Jun 3, 2026

Competition-Aware CPC Forecasting with Near-Market Coverage

We forecast cost-per-click in paid search by approximating latent competition through semantic, behavioral, and geographic signals derived from Google Ads auction logs.

Mar 13, 2026

When Search Stops Sending Traffic: The Impact of Google AI Overviews on Organic Traffic Monetization in E-Commerce

Using the staggered international rollout of Google AI Overviews as a platform-level shock, we find that AI Overviews reduce organic e-commerce sessions while leaving transactions and revenue largely unchanged, raising conversion rate and revenue per session.

Mar 1, 2026

Prompt to Purchase: ChatGPT Referrals, Basket Structure, and Category Concentration in E-Commerce

We analyze how ChatGPT referrals shape basket structure and category concentration in e-commerce, finding that generative AI functions as a distinct form of shopping intermediation.

Mar 1, 2026

Product Differentiation through Labels: Evidence from EU Energy Relabeling
Product Differentiation through Labels: Evidence from EU Energy Relabeling

We analyze the impact of EU energy efficiency relabeling on consumer purchase decisions using quasi-experimental methods.

Sep 10, 2025

Neural Product Embeddings for (New) Product Sales Prediction

We develop neural product embeddings to predict sales of new products, addressing the challenge of forecasting with limited historical data.

Aug 1, 2025

Conversion Rates in E-Commerce

We analyze conversion rates in e-commerce, examining factors that influence customer purchase decisions in online retail.

May 1, 2025

Do LLMs Cannibalize Search?: Evidence from Italy’s ChatGPT Ban

We analyze how ChatGPT is disrupting traditional search behavior and its implications for Google's market dominance.

Jan 1, 2025