Competition-Aware CPC Forecasting with Near-Market Coverage

Cost-per-click (CPC) in paid search is a volatile auction outcome generated by a competitive landscape that is only partially observable from any single advertiser’s history. Using Google Ads auction logs from a concentrated car-rental market (2021–2023), we forecast weekly CPC for 1,811 keyword series and approximate latent competition through complementary signals derived from keyword text, CPC trajectories, and geographic market structure. We construct (i) semantic neighborhoods and a semantic keyword graph from pretrained transformer-based representations of keyword text, (ii) behavioral neighborhoods via Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) alignment of CPC trajectories, and (iii) geographic-intent covariates capturing localized demand and marketplace heterogeneity. We extensively evaluate these signals both as stand-alone covariates and as relational priors in spatiotemporal graph forecasters, benchmarking them against strong statistical, neural, and time-series foundation-model baselines. Across methods, competition-aware augmentation improves stability and error profiles at business-relevant medium and longer horizons, where competitive regimes shift and volatility is most consequential. The results show that broad market-outcome coverage, combined with keyword-derived semantic and geographic priors, provides a scalable way to approximate latent competition and improve CPC forecasting in auction-driven markets.

Working Paper